CS382:Chaos

Climate Model

This unit is about chaotic system. Chaotic system typically appear in climate model, and actuary butterfly effect, which is a famous chaotic theory because of the movie, was found by the research of climate model. It could be worthy to introduce how Lorenz found deterministic climate model cannot predict future climate because of the initial parameters. This unit will be a issue about the upper limit of computer model.

Background Reading

• Making Order Out of Chaos: Edward Lorenz
• Edward N. Lorenz "Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow"
• Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow (1963)
• James Gleick "Chaos: Making a New Science"

Lecture Note

• Lecture 1:
  • Story of Edward Lorenz
  • How he found butterfly effect
  • Introducing the weather model which Lorenz used

• Lecture 2:
  • Climate model
  • Introducing NetLogo-like climate model
  • Basic of earth science (showing the relationship among temperature, pressure, wind, and humidity)

• Lecture 3:
  • Numerical weather prediction
  • Introducing how weather channel forecasts tomorrow's climate
  • Different between numerical weather prediction and deterministic climate model
  • NOAA

• Lecture 4:
  • Global warming
  • Can computer scientist predict climate 100 years later?
  • Super computer for climate model (earth simulator, etc)

Classroom Response Question

• Who found butterfly effect?
  • a. Edward Lorenz
  • b. Hendrik Lorentz
  • c. Edward Teller
  • d. Edward VIII

• What is the chance of rain tomorrow?
  • a. 30%
  • b. 40%
  • c. 50%
  • d. (from weather channel)

• How accurate are weather forecasts?
  • a. 100%
  • b. 90%
  • c. 80%
  • d. 70%

Lab Activity

• To modify source code, compute lorenz attractor. GNU Plot can plot a 3 dimensional graph. A variety of shapes will be displayed depending on initial parameters.
• JAVA application Lorenz Attractor
• To show chaotic system (climate might be to complex)
• Look up Shodor (function flyer)